Jerome model in Ohio: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.6% for Clinton, and 48.4% for Trump in Ohio.

In Ohio, the election outcome is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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