The Issues and Leaders model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.5%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Hence, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single index model. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, we recommend to look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.