Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.5%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Hence, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single index model. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, we recommend to look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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