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Iowa: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.5% for Clinton, and 50.5% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to win only 49.3% of the vote.

In Iowa, the election outcome is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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