Illinois: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead
The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 59.8% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, whereas Trump will end up with 40.2%. In comparison, on October 27 Trump was predicted to obtain 40.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in Illinois. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.