Illinois: Clinton holds overwhelming lead in The Simon Poll/SIU poll

Results of a new poll carried out by The Simon Poll/SIU were published. The poll asked participants from Illinois for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Of those who responded, 53.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from September 27 to October 2, among a random sample of 865 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in Illinois. That is, the combined PollyVote is 6.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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