Quinnipiac released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
The results show that former New York Senator Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump can draw on identical levels of support, each with 46.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 26 with 707 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Georgia sees Clinton at 48.6% of the two-party vote. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 1.4 percentage points better in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 48.0% and Trump 52.0% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Clinton has 2 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Georgia. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.