Results of a new poll carried out by Dixie StrategiesDixie Strategies were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Florida for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Florida, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Dixie StrategiesDixie Strategies poll results
Of those who replied, 42.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 25 to October 26 with 698 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not rely too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 48.8% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, Polly's prediction is 3.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.