Florida: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton, and 49.0% for Trump in Florida.

In Florida, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, don't put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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