Florida: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead
The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton, and 49.0% for Trump in Florida.
In Florida, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, don't put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.