Univ. Of North FloridaUniv. Of North Florida published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
In Florida, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Univ. Of North FloridaUniv. Of North Florida poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 20 and October 25. The sample size was 819 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.