Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were announced. The poll asked interviewees from New Hampshire for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Historically, New Hampshire has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular interest.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 17 to October 19, among a random sample of 900 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 55.0% for Clinton and 45.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of New Hampshire polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.0 point below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.