DeSart & Holbrook model in New York: Clinton is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 64.6% of the two-party vote share in New York, while Trump will end up with 35.4%. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to collect only 63.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 63.3% of the two-party vote in New York. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New York.