DeSart & Holbrook model in New York: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 64.6% of the two-party vote share in New York, while Trump will end up with 35.4%. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to collect only 63.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 63.3% of the two-party vote in New York. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New York.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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