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DeSart & Holbrook model in New York: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 64.7% of the two-party vote share in New York, while Trump will win 35.4%. In comparison, on October 22 Trump was still predicted to garner 36.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.3% of the two-party vote in New York. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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