Results of a new national poll conducted by IBD were spread. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
IBD poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 22 and October 27. The sample size was 973 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. In the most recent IBD poll on October 26 Clinton received only 51.2%, while Trump received 48.8%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the IBD poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.2 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.