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Crosstab model in Virginia: Clinton is in the lead

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The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton, and 45.9% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on October 27 Trump was predicted to win 45.7% of the vote.

Historically, Virginia has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, since they can include large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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