Crosstab model in New Jersey: Clinton is in the lead
The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 58.7% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, while Trump will end up with 41.3%. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to collect only 58.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.