Crosstab model in California: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 63.2% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will win 36.8%. In comparison, on October 27 Trump was still predicted to collect 37.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 62.5% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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