The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 39.8% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will end up with 60.3%. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to win only 39.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 58.4% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.