Results of a new national poll conducted by UPI/CVOTER were distributed. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out via Internet from October 20 to October 26 among 1363 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump. In the most recent UPI/CVOTER poll on October 23 Clinton obtained 52.1%, while Trump obtained only 47.9%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.1%. In comparison to numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll Clinton's poll average is 2.1 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.9 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.