Results of a new poll carried out by KABC/SurveyUSA were released. The poll asked respondents from California for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
The results show that 56.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 15. A total of 725 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.7 points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 63.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. Relative to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 62.5% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.