PPIC published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPIC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 14 to October 23 with 1024 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California has Clinton at 63.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the PPIC poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.5% of the two-party vote in California. That is, Polly's forecast is 3.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.