Arizona: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.6% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will end up with 51.4%. In comparison, on October 27 Trump was predicted to gain 51.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data. The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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