Alaska: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Alaska, whereas Trump will win 57.2%. In comparison, on October 27 Trump was predicted to win 56.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 56.9% of the two-party vote in Alaska. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Alaska.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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