Loras published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Wisconsin were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Loras poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 4 and October 5. The sample size was 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Wisconsin sees Clinton at 53.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.6 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Loras poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is negligible.