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Winthrop poll in South Carolina: Trump holds negligible advantage

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Winthrop released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from South Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

Winthrop poll results
38

Clinton

42

Trump

Of those who replied, 38.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 18 to September 26 with 475 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.5% for Clinton and 52.5% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in South Carolina sees Trump at 54.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Winthrop poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. Hence, Polly's prediction is 2.0 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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