WBUR/MassINC poll in Massachusetts: Trump behind by 26 points
By On October 26, WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who replied, 57.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 16 with 502 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they can include substantial biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 64.2%. Relative to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 0.6 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 65.1% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is negligible.
