Results of a new poll carried out by Salt Lake Tribune were published. The poll asked respondents from Utah for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Salt Lake Tribune poll results
According to the results, 25.0% of respondents said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 34.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 12 to September 19 among 820 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, you should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 42.4% for Clinton and 57.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently runs at 61.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Utah. Compared to his numbers in the Salt Lake Tribune poll Trump's poll average is 3.9 percentage points higher. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 59.2% of the two-party vote in Utah. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.6 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is negligible.