University of Delaware published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Delaware were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
University of Delaware poll results
The results show that 51.0% of participants would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 16 to September 28 among 762 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 63.0% for Clinton and 37.0% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 60.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Delaware. This value is 3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the University of Delaware poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 60.3% of the two-party vote in Delaware. That is, the PollyVote is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is negligible.