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UMass Amherst/WBZ poll in New Hampshire: Clinton with 5 points lead

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Results of a new poll carried out by UMass Amherst/WBZ were published. The poll asked participants from New Hampshire for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

New Hampshire is traditionally a purple state, where the two major political parties have historically won similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is viewed as important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

UMass Amherst/WBZ poll results
43

Clinton

38

Trump

According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from October 17 to October 21, among a random sample of 772 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they often include substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of New Hampshire polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the UMass Amherst/WBZ poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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