Results of a new poll carried out by UMass Amherst/WBZ were published. The poll asked participants from New Hampshire for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
New Hampshire is traditionally a purple state, where the two major political parties have historically won similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is viewed as important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
UMass Amherst/WBZ poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 17 to October 21, among a random sample of 772 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they often include substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of New Hampshire polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the UMass Amherst/WBZ poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.