IBD published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 21 to October 26 among 945 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 53.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 2.3 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the IBD poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.8 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is insignificant.