IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
IBD/TIPP poll results
The results show that 44.0% of respondents are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 21 to October 26 via phone. A total of 945 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they can incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.3%. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.