The Oregonian released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
The Oregonian poll results
The results show that 46.0% of interviewees are going to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 4 to October 14, among a random sample of 608 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Oregon polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.2%. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the The Oregonian poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, the PollyVote is 1.0 point above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.