University of Houston published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Texas were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
University of Houston poll results
Of those who answered the question, 38.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 7 to October 15. A total of 1000 likely voters responded.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 48.1% for Clinton and 51.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 52.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Texas. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the University of Houston poll.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in Texas. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.0 points above his polling numbers.