Trafalgar Group (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from South Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Trafalgar Group (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 38.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 53.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 6 to September 12. A total of 1247 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 41.8% for Clinton and 58.2% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Trump currently runs at 54.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in South Carolina. This value is 3.8 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Trafalgar Group (R) poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. Hence, Polly's forecast is 3.7 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.