Results of a new poll administered by Oregon Public Broadcasting were released. The poll asked participants from Oregon for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Oregon Public Broadcasting poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants indicated that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 6 to October 13, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Oregon polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.2%. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Oregon Public Broadcasting poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Oregon. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.