Crosstab model in North Dakota: Trump is in the lead
The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 37.8% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, whereas Trump will win 62.2%. In comparison, on October 27 Trump was predicted to gain 61.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in North Dakota. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 2.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Dakota.