Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 22 with 1764 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.4% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Trump at 48.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.