Siena published the results of a new poll on October 26. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Siena poll results
The results show that 54.0% of participants are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 17. A total of 611 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New York sees Clinton at 62.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Siena poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.4% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.