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New SMOR poll in Louisiana: Trump with substantial lead

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SMOR published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

SMOR poll results
33

Clinton

49

Trump

According to the results, 33.0% of respondents plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 49.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 15 to September 17. A total of 500 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-4.4 points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they often contain large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 40.2% for Clinton and 59.8% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of Louisiana polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 58.5%. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the SMOR poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.3 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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