SMOR published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
SMOR poll results
According to the results, 33.0% of respondents plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 49.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 15 to September 17. A total of 500 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-4.4 points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they often contain large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 40.2% for Clinton and 59.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Louisiana polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 58.5%. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the SMOR poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.3 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.