New Remington Research (R) poll in Nevada: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat
By Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Nevada is traditionally a purple state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22 with 1332 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.7 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.4% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Nevada sees Trump at 47.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll Trump's poll average is 3.9 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.
