The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 55.7% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, while Trump will end up with 44.3%. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to gain only 55.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 56.4% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.