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New Magellan Strategies (R) poll in Colorado: Clinton with narrow advantage

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Magellan Strategies (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

In Colorado, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Magellan Strategies (R) poll results
40

Clinton

35

Trump

Of those who replied, 40.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 12 to October 13 among 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Colorado sees Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Magellan Strategies (R) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.9% of the two-party vote in Colorado. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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