Richard Stockton College released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Jersey were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Richard Stockton College poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of participants said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 22 to September 29, among a random sample of 638 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 56.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Jersey. Relative to her numbers in the Richard Stockton College poll Clinton's poll average is 2.8 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 5.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is significant.