Results of a new poll carried out by WMUR/UNH were distributed. The poll asked respondents from New Hampshire for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, New Hampshire has been a purple state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular importance.
WMUR/UNH poll results
Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 11 to October 17 among 770 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may include large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 59.0% for Clinton and 41.0% for Trump. To compare: 61.7% was gained by Clinton in the WMUR/UNH poll on April 17, for Trump this number was only 38.3%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 54.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Hampshire. Relative to her numbers in the WMUR/UNH poll Clinton's poll average is 4.5 percentage points lower. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is significant.