Results of a new national poll administered by FOX were released. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
FOX poll results
The results show that 49.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from October 22 to October 25 among 1221 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.9 points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. In the latest FOX poll on October 17 Clinton received 53.9%, while Trump received only 46.2%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point higher than respective numbers in the FOX poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 1.4 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.