Albuquerque Journal released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Mexico were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Albuquerque Journal poll results
The results show that 44.0% of interviewees are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 34.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to September 29, among a random sample of 501 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.4 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New Mexico has Clinton at 57.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Albuquerque Journal poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 56.4% of the two-party vote in New Mexico.