8 News NOW – Las Vegas published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Nevada is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have often won similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is considered crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
8 News NOW - Las Vegas poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 10 and October 13. The sample size was 600 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 52.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Nevada. This value is 1 percentage point higher than her respective numbers in the 8 News NOW – Las Vegas poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.