Las Vegas Review-Journal released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
In Nevada, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Las Vegas Review-Journal poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 23 among 800 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.9 points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 52.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Nevada. Relative to her numbers in the Las Vegas Review-Journal poll Clinton's poll average is 1.7 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, the combined PollyVote is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is negligible.