Crosstab model in Nevada: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.5% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will end up with 48.5%. In comparison, on October 27 Trump was predicted to garner 48.2% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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