Results of a new poll carried out by NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist were distributed. The poll asked participants from New York for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist poll results
The results show that 52.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 21 to September 23 with 676 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.8 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 62.7% for Clinton and 37.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in New York sees Clinton at 62.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that the PollyVote is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is negligible.