Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll on October 12. In this poll, interviewees from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who responded, 42.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 9 to October 11, among a random sample of 2171 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-2.1 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump. On September 2 Clinton obtained only 44.7% in the Remington Research (R) poll and Trump obtained 55.3%.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of Missouri polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 53.4%. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Missouri. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.0 point above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.